Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3261 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3261 · ORD → PHX

departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3261 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?