AA 3268 · PHL → MCO

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3268 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?