AA 3281 · MIA → RDU

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
32%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.01 in

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3281 · MIA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?