AA 3281 · RDU → MIA

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3281 · RDU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?