Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3292 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3292 · ORD → LAS

departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3292 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?