Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3292 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3292 · ORD → LAS

departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±9 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,733 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.10 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3292 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?