Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3304 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3304 · MIA → ORD

departs 7:21 PM ET · arrives 10:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.66 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3304 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?