Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 343 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 343 · PVD → DCA

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 343 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?