Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 450 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 450 · PHX → SAT

departs 9:46 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip1.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 450 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?