Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 450SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 450 · PHX → SAT
departs 9:46 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%chance · ±2 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.