AA 467 · LAX → MIA

departs 1:42 PM PT · arrives 10:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 467 · LAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?