Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 471 · ORD → PHL

departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 471 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?