Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 471 · ORD → PHL

departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 471 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?