AA 487 · MIA → BNA

departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 487 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?