AA 506 · CLT → SEA

departs 12:28 PM ET · arrives 3:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 506 · CLT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?