Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 509SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AA 509 · DFW → SMF
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
71%chance · ±5 pts+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.