tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow

AA 509 · DFW → SMF

departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
48% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 4.1d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SMF?

  1. On time or early
    49%
  2. 15–30 min late
    9%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    18%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    11%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    8%
  6. Cancelled
    5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.