AA 590 · MIA → SFO

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 590 · MIA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?