Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 618 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 618 · DFW → EWR

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±7 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.58 in

EWR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 618 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?