Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 618 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 618 · DFW → EWR

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.09 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 618 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?