AA 635 · LAX → IND

departs 4:54 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 635 · LAX → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?