AA 642 · JFK → MIA

departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 642 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?