Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 657 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 657 · CLT → JFK

departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 657 · CLT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?