Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 796 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 796 · PHL → MIA

departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 796 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?