Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 797 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 797 · MIA → PHL

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.63 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 797 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?