AA 845 · LGA → MIA

departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 10:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 845 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?