Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 869 · MCI → PHL

departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.67 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 869 · MCI → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?