Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 869SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 869 · MCI → PHL
departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%chance · ±1 pts−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.