AS 1014 · LIH → HNL

departs 7:12 AM HT · arrives 7:48 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 7am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1014 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?