AS 1040 · LIH → OGG

departs 9:27 AM HT · arrives 10:16 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 9am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.13 in

OGG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1040 · LIH → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?