Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1103 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

departs 3:39 PM HT · arrives 4:20 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

LIH (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?