AS 1116 · HNL → OGG

departs 1:01 PM HT · arrives 1:45 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.26 in

OGG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1116 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?