AS 1128 · HNL → KOA

departs 12:38 PM HT · arrives 1:37 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1128 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?