Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1507SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1507 · SEA → FAI
departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 2:55 PM AKT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
30%chance · ±5 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to FAI?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.