Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1519 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1519 · MCI → PDX

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 5pm departures from MCI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.67 in

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1519 · MCI → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?