Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1527 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1527 · ANC → OTZ

departs 9:02 AM AKT · arrives 10:37 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at OTZ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OTZ?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into OTZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.03 in

OTZ (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1527 · ANC → OTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to OTZ?