Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 15SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AS 15 · DCA → SAN
departs 8:59 AM ET · arrives 11:39 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%chance · ±0 pts+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.