Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1623 · SJC → SAN

departs 7:13 AM PT · arrives 8:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1623 · SJC → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?