Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1623SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1623 · SJC → SAN
departs 7:13 AM PT · arrives 8:43 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
16%chance · ±1 pts−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.