Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1632 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1632 · PDX → SJC

departs 11:45 AM PT · arrives 1:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1632 · PDX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?