AS 1700 · SEA → PDX

departs 1:33 PM PT · arrives 2:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1700 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?