Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 209 · SEA → JNU

departs 11:24 AM PT · arrives 12:56 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into JNU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 209 · SEA → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?