Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 23 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 23 · JFK → SEA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 23 · JFK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?