Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 23 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 23 · JFK → SEA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±5 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.18 in

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 23 · JFK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?