Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 263 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 263 · SEA → EWR

departs 3:38 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 263 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?