Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 310 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 310 · SEA → DEN

departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 310 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?