Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 435 · SEA → JNU

departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into JNU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 435 · SEA → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?