Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 435 · SEA → JNU

departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↓ Arrivals into JNU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 435 · SEA → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?