Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 50 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 50 · HNL → ANC

departs 9:11 PM HT · arrives 5:20 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

ANC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 50 · HNL → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?