Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 510 · MSP → SEA

departs 4:57 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 510 · MSP → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?